By Trishla Ostwal & Paul Hiebert

January 17, 2025

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As advertisers brace for a U.S. without TikTok., Meta’s cost-per-thousand-impressions (CPMs) are showing signs of both increased competition and expanded ad inventory, according to three sources.

The Supreme Court upheld the TikTok ban today, a decision that could reshape the global social media landscape. Its removal from the U.S. market puts billions in ad dollars up for grabs, and rising CPMs on Meta’s Reels already signal a shift in demand.

Data from Varos, a benchmarking firm that tracks digital ad spend, shows CPMs for Meta’s Reels on Facebook and Instagram rose throughout Q4 2024 compared to the same period in 2023. Meanwhile, YouTube remained flat and TikTok saw declines.

“Increased demand in short-form video on Reels led to increased CPMs,” said Jason Krebs, general manager, of Varos. “Lesser demand relative to inventory on TikTok resulted in CPM decreases.”

Performance agency Tinuiti reported a 9% YoY drop in Meta’s CPMs, with December remaining flat YoY.

“The lower YoY and month-on-month CPMs in January 2025 indicates that auction competition is lower,” said Jack Johnston, Tinuiti’s senior social innovation director. “This could mean that Meta has opened more ad inventory and leaning into Meta’s conversion signals has led to more efficient impressions, presenting a strong case for advertisers to scale on Meta.”

Meanwhile, Calla Murphy, vp of digital strategy at Belardi Wong, noted Meta’s CPMs were up 16% YoY month-to-date, with a 10% increase in Q4 YoY.

“This signals increased competition,” Wong said.

Agencies Prepare to Shift Social Strategies as TikTok Ban Looks Likely

Even if TikTok disappears from the U.S., advertisers expect short-form video demand to remain strong.

“TikTok may get banned, but the demand for TikTok-style content and mobile video will hold strong,” said Hillary Kupferberg, vp, performance marketing, Exverus Media. “Viewership will be distributed if the ban holds, but the audience and potential isn’t going anywhere.”

Two agency executives, speaking on condition of anonymity, anticipate Meta will make updates to its Shops experience this year.

“With an established social commerce presence already in place, we anticipate Instagram Shop to more closely mirror the TikTok shop experience in 2025, regardless of what happens with the ban,” one agency executive said.

As brands and agencies adapt, the battle for TikTok’s ad dollars is just beginning—Meta may appear to be the emerging winner for now, but competitors are likely to make their own plays in the months ahead.

Bracing for a TikTok Ban: 5 Key Implications for Ads, Creators, and Businesses

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Trishla Ostwal

• @trishlaostwal
• trishla.ostwal@adweek.com

Trishla is an Adweek staff reporter covering tech policy.

Paul Hiebert

• @hiebertpaul
• paul.hiebert@adweek.com

Paul Hiebert is Adweek's deputy editor of special projects.