by Parshwa Turakhiya Benzinga Staff Writer

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Overview

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The S&P 500 (NYSE:SPY) on Tuesday broke above its 200-week moving average against Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) for the first time since 2012, ending a 14-year streak of the crypto outperforming stocks.

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What The Chart Is Actually Showing

The same crossover is appearing on the Nasdaq to Bitcoin ratio, the first time either has happened in the history of both assets, CoinDesk reported on Wednesday.

The ratio has moved in Bitcoin’s favor since 2010, with today’s reading at roughly 0.12 BTC to buy the S&P 500, down from more than 300 BTC in 2012.

Every prior instance of stocks briefly outperforming Bitcoin reversed quickly. This time it has not.

CoinDesk further noted the sustained break suggests Bitcoin’s era of outsized gains versus equities may be fading, undercutting both the superior store of value narrative and aggressive price targets from prior cycles.

The more constructive read is that Bitcoin is maturing.

Moonshot rallies happen when an asset is small and illiquid, and at a trillion-dollar market cap with ETFs, options, and futures, it is harder to move the way it once did.

Why Stocks Are Breaking Out While Bitcoin Sits Flat

The S&P 500 crossed 7,700 for the first time Tuesday, pushing the total market cap above $70 trillion.

The Nasdaq, Dow, and Russell 2000 all hit fresh highs in the same session, according to The Order Book Show livestream hosted by trader and Breakout Prop founder Trader Mayne.

Mayne linked part of the rally to the forced unwinding of Leopold Aschenbrenner’s Situational Awareness fund.

Where Bitcoin Stands In This Environment

Bitcoin has traded inside a roughly $10,000 range for close to two months while equities push to record highs, a dislocation Mayne said he interprets as the crypto bull cycle not yet starting.

He said he is waiting for a confirmed technical breakout before turning bullish, with $70,000 as his first upside target on a breakout.

Rate expectations are also shifting. Fed rate hike odds for December moved from above 60% probability of no change toward roughly 43%, according to Polymarket and CME data Mayne referenced.

Separately, reported US intervention to support the Japanese yen raised concerns about a yen carry trade unwind that could pressure US interest rates higher.

Photo via Shutterstock